As the Cardinals start to pick up steam in their push for October baseball, the effort is often frustrating. With the Reds still holding a 6 game in lead in the NL Central as of Tuesday morning, and the Pirates (3.5 back of Cincinatti) showing no signs of slowing down, it feels as if the Redbirds are simply treading water in the NL postseason race. Pundits call the Cardinals one of the best squads in the major leagues, yet if the playoffs started today, there would be no repeat for St. Louis. As a Cards fan, you find yourself wondering, how many wins is necessary? A numerical answer, in a game obsessed with statistical analysis may be needed to help ease your anxiety over the fast-paced NL Central race.
Joe Strauss offered his educated guess through a series of tweets this morning.
Strauss offers a logical idea that the Cards will dominate the lowly Astros in their remaining 10 games versus Houston, and reach 90 wins with just a .500 record against the rest of their schedule.
His conclusion of his first tweet is that 90 wins will be enough to get the Cards in the playoffs, specifically in Atlanta versus the Braves.
Strauss finishes by responding to a question– a common response to the red-hot Reds. Strauss estimates that at 93-94 wins, St. Louis will win the NL Central.
For those wondering, Cincinatti is currently 66-43 and in first place in the NL Central. If they continue at their current winning pace (.606 winning percentage), they will win another 32 games, putting the Reds at 98 wins. Obviously, 93-94 wins for the Cards would not due the trick in the Central race. However, the Reds may rest key players down the stretch, and Strauss’s estimate could be very close to the necesarry win numbers for St. Louis.
As baseball has shown us year after year (hint: 2011), predictions and guesses on playoff teams are useless. If you need a number, take Strauss’s thoughts with a cautious eye. Otherwise, just keep rootin’ for the Redbirds.